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Also available are our Fall 2025 release and our special issue, The October 7 Emergencies, which explores prospects for President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan. If you find this newsletter useful, please forward to others you believe will benefit, and please follow us on the social media sites X, Bluesky, and LinkedIn.
The winter issue kicks off with four deep dives into key areas of the new regional order. In their open-access analysis, Guilain Denoeux and Robert Springborg show that the Trump administration is leading a new approach to rebuilding collapsed states—away from inclusion, compromise, reconciliation, accountability, and citizenship, and instead toward elevating strongmen who can impose political and social order. As Washington takes its hands off the process, the authors contend, it is leaving support for these leaders to “an emerging Council of the Middle East, comprised of the leading Arab Gulf states, Turkey, and Israel.”
Denoeux and Springborg contend that this process has already taken place in Syria, and a version could be replicated in places where the United States had tried to impose democracy, including “Sudan, Libya, and to some extent Palestine.” But while the new approach may be seen as expedient, the article points out two contradictions: Israel may be interested in maintaining disorder; and the proposed solution relies “on authoritarianism to contain social, economic, and political discontent.”
The new regional order has also been influenced by China’s increased economic influence. Xiaoyu Wang, Salman K. Al-Dhafeeire, and Degang Sun explore how Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Beijing has allowed it to ramp up its defense and security sectors while furthering the diversification of its economy. Last month, the article shows, Riyadh’s hedging between the two superpowers helped it win enormous concessions from Washington, including F-35s and advanced chips for artificial intelligence—without having to normalize relations with Israel.
Finally, the civil wars in Yemen and Syria continue to drive major regional shifts. Federico Donelli’s open-access article examines the Houthis’ attacks on Red Sea ships and sees more than just a disruption to global commerce. “These events challenge the conventional view that the land domain is fragmented and prone to conflict, while the maritime domain is cooperative and regime-governed,” he argues. Such an arena should be considered a hybrid regional security complex, which yields insights for policy makers: “Adopt integrated, cross-domain strategies combining short-term crisis management with long-term governance initiatives.”
Perhaps more devastating could be the budding conflict between Israel and Turkey, which is seen most acutely in post-Assad Syria. Buğra Sari and Avnihan Kirişik examine how Ankara seeks to combat groups affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, build up a friendly regime in Damascus, and establish a lasting military presence. By contrast, Israel aims to secure its northern border by creating a buffer zone against the new Islamist government and targeting Iran-linked infrastructure. These conflicting strategies have raised the risk of proxy violence or even direct confrontation between the two regional powers, especially in key areas like Quneitra, near the Golan Heights, and Druze-inhabited areas in Syria’s south.
Our new issue shifts to Israel with two articles—free to read even for those without a subscription—examining the peace movement and Palestinian nationalism. Natalya Philippova shows that the movement has been hampered by a set of laws hostile to its activities, but her in-depth interviews with 40 activists show that they are persisting. Despite the pressures, Philippova finds greater unity among NGOs, leading to increased collaboration across ideological lines. As for the Palestinian side of the struggle, Ido Zelkovitz and Yehiel Limor’s open-access article provides insights into how postage stamps have been used to build a sense of national identity.
Finally, we look at Turkey’s struggles with opposition groups. Michael M. Gunter makes a compelling case that the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party is likely to fail given that the terms seem to amount to the group’s surrender, with little gained in return. And in the arena of domestic politics, Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu contends that despite Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s arrests of key opposition figures in spring 2025, “there remains in the Turkish system a vibrancy that signals both a perpetuation of competitive authoritarianism and some hints of a pathway back toward democracy.”
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